The World Trade Organization has sharply upgraded its outlook for global merchandise trade, forecasting volume growth of 3.9% in 2026—more than double the 1.9% baseline it published in March.
The revision reflects stronger-than-expected goods flows as investment in semiconductors, servers and data-centre infrastructure offsets part of the disruption caused by conflict and higher energy costs in the Middle East. The WTO also projects merchandise-trade growth of 4.1% in 2027.
An AI-led expansion
AI-enabling goods accounted for 47% of global merchandise-trade growth by value in the first half of 2026, according to the new outlook, while trade in those products rose 67% year on year. That makes the present trade expansion unusually concentrated in a capital-intensive technology cycle.
The regional picture is similarly uneven. Asia is forecast to lead in 2026, with merchandise imports rising 9.5% and exports 9.9%. Africa is also expected to record strong growth, while the Middle East is projected to suffer steep contractions in both imports and exports.
The upgrade does not mean the wider global economy is free of strain. World GDP is forecast to grow 2.6% this year, and the WTO identifies risks from high fuel and fertiliser costs, disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, the war in Ukraine and any slowdown in AI investment.
Goods strength, services weakness
The most important counterweight to the positive headline is services. The WTO cut its forecast for services-trade growth in 2026 to 3.3%, from a previous baseline of 4.8%. Transport and travel are especially exposed to aviation-fuel costs and regional disruption, with their respective growth forecasts reduced to 0.9% and 0.2%.
This split matters for investors and policymakers. A semiconductor- and infrastructure-led surge can support exporters, ports and industrial supply chains without producing the same broad gains across tourism, aviation and consumer-facing services. It can also leave the outlook vulnerable to a pause in data-centre spending.
What the numbers signal
The forecast shows that global supply chains are adapting rather than simply retreating. Yet resilience is not the same as balance. The WTO said wider fragmentation between geopolitical trade blocs had eased, while economic decoupling between the United States and China accelerated.
The central question for 2027 is whether the AI investment boom develops into broader productivity and demand, or remains a narrow source of trade growth. If it broadens, the upgraded forecast may prove durable. If investment slows while energy and shipping costs remain high, the gap between buoyant goods trade and weaker services could become a fault line.